During the summer months in New York, baseball takes center stage, captivating both the astute sports bettors and avid fans. With the New York Yankees and New York Mets as the dominant forces in town, New Yorkers boast a rich history of expertise in the sport.

If you have experience in baseball betting, you probably won’t require an explanation of the run line. Nevertheless, if you are new to sports betting, specifically in MLB, an introduction to it might be helpful.

In the following discussion, we will explore the definition of the run line, delve into the benefits of wagering on the run line, and examine any pertinent rules or advantages associated with it.

What is the run line?

Run-line betting in baseball is equivalent to spread betting in football. In football, the widely favored method of betting is based on the spread, where one can wager on whether a team will exceed or fall short of a 3.5 point spread. This same concept is applied to run-line betting in baseball.

Nevertheless, the run line in baseball typically remains at 1.5 runs. This enables you to place bets on whether you believe the favored team will triumph by a margin of at least two runs, or if the underdog will either narrow the score difference to one run or emerge victorious.

Team	Run-Line	Moneyline	Total
NY Mets	-1.5 (+130)	-160	Over 8.5 (-120)
Miami Marlins	+1.5 (-150)	+140	Under 8.5 (+100)

In the given illustration by WynnBet Sportsbook in New York, the baseball match features the Mets against the Marlins. The Mets hold a -160 position as favorites on the moneyline, meaning you would have to stake $160 to earn $100 in winnings. Conversely, they are considered +130 underdogs when it comes to covering the 1.5 runs on the run line. In this scenario, a $100 bet would yield a $130 payout. However, if the Mets were to win the game by only one run, you would unfortunately lose the bet. Nevertheless, opting for the run line bet presents a higher potential payout.

Why is the run line always 1.5 runs?

The run line is typically established at 1.5 runs due to baseball’s lower-scoring nature and greater unpredictability. In contrast, football and basketball games tend to have higher scores. Baseball games generally see a total of 7-10 runs from both teams, while basketball games witness over 200 points combined and football games often reach approximately 50 points. Consequently, a run holds more value in baseball than a point does in football or basketball.

Moreover, the gap between the performance of strong and weak teams is more pronounced when considering individual games. In football, the weakest team may only secure victory in one or two matches, whereas the strongest teams can triumph in 14 or 15 games. Conversely, in baseball, it is common for even the best teams to suffer defeat in at least 50 games, while the poorest teams manage to secure victory in a minimum of 50 games.

Sometimes, you may come across a scenario where the run line is placed at 2.5 runs. This typically occurs when a top-tier team in the league competes against a weaker team and the pitching matchup heavily favors one side.

For instance, when the Yankees have Gerrit Cole as their starting pitcher against the low-ranking Baltimore Orioles, a situation arises where a 1.5 run advantage may not suffice. In response, the sportsbooks adjust the run line to 2.5 runs.

Even if there is a dominant side in terms of betting activity on a run line, it typically does not result in a change in the spread. However, the odds linked to the run line may be adjusted. For instance, if the Mets initially have +140 odds as favorites to cover the run line but the betting activity heavily favors them, the run line will still be at 1.5 runs, but the odds might decrease to +120.

How is the run line different from the moneyline?

The run line and the moneyline have distinct differences. When you place a moneyline bet on a team, you are solely wagering on their victory in the game. The margin of victory, whether it’s a close one-run game or a dominating 10-0 triumph, does not affect your payout.

When making a run line bet, it’s important to consider the margin of victory. For instance, if you place a bet on the Mets to cover the 1.5 run line and they end up winning the game 3-2, your bet would be considered unsuccessful. However, if you had placed a moneyline bet on the Mets instead, this same outcome would have resulted in a winning bet. By opting for the moneyline, you are willing to compromise the likelihood of your bet winning in order to enjoy more favorable odds.

The situation works in both directions. If you place a bet on the Yankees to cover a +1.5 run line as underdogs and they lose the game 5-4, you will still win your run-line bet. However, if you become too ambitious and bet on the Yankees on the moneyline, your bet will result in a loss. By betting on the underdog to cover the moneyline, you increase the chances of your bet being successful but give up the potential for higher odds.

Is it better to bet the run line or moneyline?

Baseball betting offers value in both the run line and moneyline options.

Moneyline betting offers a simplified approach compared to other types of bets. The margin of victory is not a concern, as you only have to choose a winning team and hope for their victory. This straightforward method evokes a sense of purity, reminiscent of our carefree days as young fans when spreads didn’t matter. Nonetheless, it’s important to note that betting on favorites in the moneyline requires a higher risk in terms of monetary investment. Consequently, a winning percentage of more than 50% is necessary to secure profitable outcomes.

If you prefer to bet on the favorite in baseball, run line betting provides higher payouts. On the other hand, if you’re betting on the underdog, it offers a greater sense of security. Opting for the run line is a wiser choice when betting on a significant favorite, as it reduces the amount of money at risk.

When are run line bets pushed?

It is uncommon for run line bets to result in a push since the run line is typically set at 1.5 runs, eliminating the possibility of a tie.

From time to time, oddsmakers may set the run line as an even number or provide alternative options including that possibility. Moreover, in certain cases of live betting, the run line may also be an even number.

If the final margin of victory exactly matches the set run line in this scenario, all bets will be refunded and considered as “no action”.

Does the five inning rule affect run line bets?

Baseball games can be declared “official” in inclement weather if either the visiting team completes 15 outs (5 innings) and the home team is winning, or if the home team completes 15 outs, regardless of the score.

In the event of a game being shortened, only the moneyline bets will remain valid, while all total, team total, and runline bets will be refunded. The reason behind this decision is to prevent any unfair advantage for the bettor caused by a shortened game. Such a situation diminishes the scoring opportunities for teams and eliminates their chances of covering the run line with additional runs.

Can I bet run line parlays?

Parlays are adored by sports bettors due to the excitement they bring. A parlay involves selecting multiple independent bets and consolidating them into a single wager. The condition for winning your bet is that all of the selected bets must individually emerge victorious. However, if even a single bet fails, your entire wager is lost. Parlay sports bets pose a greater challenge, resulting in enhanced betting odds and larger payouts.

Choosing run line parlays is a legitimate choice that can yield substantial winnings if each leg is successful. Nevertheless, accurately predicting multiple games is already challenging, and incorporating the run line makes it even more difficult.

Make sure to review the betting regulations for run lines in your chosen sportsbook. Certain sportsbooks may impose limits on the number of legs you can include in your parlay or the number of underdogs allowed in your bet. However, most sportsbooks and New York sports betting sites will permit parlaying baseball run lines.

Can you live bet MLB run lines?

After the game has commenced and progressed significantly, it is still possible to place a bet on the run line. However, the odds and lines will be adjusted according to the current state of the game. For instance, if the Yankees have a commanding 5-0 lead against the Red Sox in the fourth inning, the live run line would be -4.5 or -5.5 instead of the typical pregame -1.5. This alteration reflects the Yankees’ significant advantage in the ongoing game.

Typically, when placing a live run line bet, the new run line will closely match the current score differential in the game. For instance, in the given example, the Yankees, who already have a five-run lead, might be favored at -4.5 with odds of -160. Conversely, the opposing team might be considered the underdog at +5.5 with odds of +150. In this case, they become the underdog because they need to increase their lead rather than preserve it.

Does the run line change much for the Playoffs and World Series? 

During the playoffs, the run line is expected to remain relatively stable with a spread of 1.5 runs. However, the variation will be observed in the vig.

Throughout the regular season, there will be numerous matchups between strong and weak teams. In such games, the run line may become excessively skewed. For instance, if the Yankees face off against the Orioles, the Yankees could be considered heavy favorites at -150 odds to cover the run line.

During the playoffs, all teams are considered strong, resulting in tighter score margins and improved odds on the run line. If the Yankees face the Astros in the playoffs, the Yankees, being the favorites, are likely to have favorable odds for covering the run line.

In the playoffs, you won’t need to wager a significant amount on the run line. The games tend to be closer, so betting on the favorite to cover the run line usually offers a positive return. This differs from the regular season, where we often witness more significant disparities between teams on a daily basis.

Are there systems for betting the run line in baseball?

There exist a wide range of betting systems catering to nearly every type of wager. Various strategies are available for those seeking an edge against the sportsbook, and the run line is no exception. It is imperative for each bettor to discover their preferred approach to tackle a game.

One commonly employed betting strategy in run line betting is to place bets on teams that are given +1.5 runs on the run line with positive odds. This approach operates on a contrary mentality. When a team is considered an underdog but has a high chance of keeping the game within a two-run margin, it is often because they are seen as a weaker team playing against a stronger opponent. The general public tends to favor betting on strong teams, so going against the popular opinion can be seen as a contrarian approach. It’s important to remember that even weaker teams can emerge victorious in baseball games.

One alternative run line betting strategy involves placing bets on teams to cover the +1.5 runline in games with low totals. The reasoning behind this approach is straightforward. When a game is predicted to have a low number of runs, each run becomes more valuable, increasing the chances of a team winning by only one run as opposed to games with an abundance of runs. It becomes challenging to cover spreads involving multiple runs when the game itself lacks a significant number of runs.

Some gamblers prefer to mix run line bets with moneyline bets. For instance, if you believe that the Mets will emerge victorious in a game, you place bets on both the moneyline and the run line for the Mets. By doing so, if the Mets win by several runs, you would win two wagers and boost your earnings. Although this approach carries more risk as you stand a chance to lose both bets, the potential reward could be significant.

What other sports have spreads similar to the run line?

If you’re into hockey betting, one option is to place a bet on the puck line. This type of bet is quite similar to run line betting in baseball. Both sports, baseball and hockey, have similarities as they are low-scoring games with many unpredictable factors. Similar to baseball, wagering on the favorite team to cover the puck line in hockey usually offers a positive return on your bet.

Soccer games exhibit comparable spreads, featuring handicaps like half a goal. Additionally, there are Asian handicaps in which your bets can be refunded if a team wins by a single goal, while still allowing you to win if they secure victory by multiple goals.

In soccer, when there are significantly unequal teams competing against each other, spreads are used. For instance, if Spain were to face Saudi Arabia in the World Cup, the spread could be set at 2.5 goals. This indicates that the Spanish National Team is highly expected to triumph with a significant margin.