How to Bet the Moneyline

Now that sports betting is well underway in New York, it becomes crucial to familiarize yourself with the typical types of bets you’ll come across. Among them, none is more common than the moneyline wager.

The great news is that moneyline betting is incredibly straightforward: all you have to do is choose the winning team. It doesn’t matter how much they win by or how many points they score, so you can relax and not stress about unexpected scores in a one-sided game ruining your bet.

In order to fully grasp moneylines, which can be found at all sportsbooks in New York, it is essential to comprehend their intricacies. This comprehensive guide aims to elucidate the process of betting on the moneyline specifically in New York.

What is a moneyline bet?

To grasp the concept of the moneyline, it is simplest to observe its listing. A moneyline is consistently presented as a set of three-digit numbers, devoid of any additional characters or symbols.

The three-digit numbers provide valuable insights into the Brooklyn Nets versus Atlanta Hawks game. Nevertheless, it is important to remember that the primary objective of a moneyline bet is to select the game’s winner. Essentially, you are choosing between the Nets and the Hawks as the victorious team, without any further considerations. The numbers simply serve as supplementary information.

What do the moneyline numbers mean?

Although it may be tempting to believe that every moneyline bet has a 50/50 chance of winning since its purpose is to determine the game’s winner, it is important to acknowledge that not all teams are equally matched. In most cases, one team typically has a higher likelihood of winning the game.

One important observation to make on the moneyline is that there is a positive and a negative number. In some cases, you may encounter two negative moneylines. A positive moneyline designates the team as the underdog, while a negative moneyline signifies the team expected to win the game. In the basketball moneyline betting example mentioned earlier, the Nets are predicted to have a higher likelihood of defeating the Hawks.

The numbers provide us with the payout ratios for successful bets on each team. The team with the negative moneyline, known as the favorite, will pay out $100 for winning bets at the specified amount. On the other hand, the underdog, indicated by a positive moneyline, will pay out the exact amount of the moneyline for a successful $100 bet.

To put it differently, the payouts provided by DraftKings Sportsbook for the Nets-Hawks game were as follows:

• If you placed a bet of $230 on the Nets, you would win $100.
• Placing a bet of $100 on the Hawks would yield a total prize of $188.

If both teams have negative moneylines, which is a rare occurrence, the team with the bigger negative number is considered the favorite. Nevertheless, when both teams have negative moneylines, it indicates that they are evenly matched, and the sportsbook lacks confidence in predicting a clear winner.

Additionally, it is important to observe that the moneylines for a specific game will never be exact opposites of each other. For instance, a moneyline of -200/+200 would never be displayed. This difference is intentional in order for the sportsbook to generate profit from the bet. Sportsbooks collect a percentage of each wager as their fee, commonly referred to as the vigorish or simply “vig.”

The purpose of the discrepancy is also to account for the higher probability of more people placing bets on the favored team. Sportsbooks aim to maintain a balance between the money being wagered and the funds being paid out, including the bookmaker’s commission. Thus, due to the higher cost of offering odds for the favorite compared to accepting them for the underdog, it is more manageable for the oddsmakers to achieve equilibrium.

How does a moneyline pay out?

It is crucial to grasp that betting in $100 increments is not mandatory, and you are not limited to the listed amount. Since the listings represent ratios, the sportsbook will adjust the payout to align with your chosen bet size. While the minimum wager typically starts at around a dollar, this may vary between different books and bets. Rest assured, the sportsbook will easily accommodate the payout according to your desired level.

A potential source of confusion when it comes to moneylines and sports betting, in general, is the interpretation of the word “win” in relation to the money you will receive. Typically, in a sportsbook context, “win” refers to your profit rather than the total amount you will receive.

Now, we shall examine the match between Duquesne and Fordham.

Regrettably, the Rams appear to be facing a challenging match against the Dukes. The differences in the moneyline are quite significant, and indeed, Duquesne is predicted to win the game by a margin of 6.5 points, as indicated by the point spread. However, the spread proved to be inadequate, as Duquesne ultimately emerged victorious with a score of 86 to 62.

Suppose we were interested in placing a wager on either side of this game. As per the moneyline, to make a $100 profit, we would have needed to bet $300 on Duquesne. In contrast, a $100 bet on Fordham would offer the opportunity to win $245.

Suppose we possess a sum of $50 for betting. Here is an overview of the potential payouts for successful bets:

• If we place a $50 bet on Duquesne at -300, our winnings would amount to $16.67. Therefore, when we decide to cash out, FanDuel Sportsbook will pay us a total of $66.67, which includes both our original stake and the profit.
• If a successful bet of $50 is placed on Fordham at +245 odds, the resulting win would be $122.50. Therefore, betting on the Rams and winning would ultimately add $172.50 to our pocket.

If you’re looking for a convenient way to calculate your chances of winning in real-time, you’ll find numerous useful odds calculators available online and on mobile devices. But if you’d rather analyze games based on straight odds or win probability, there’s great news. You can effortlessly convert from the moneyline format.

How do you convert moneyline odds into win probability?

Fractional odds

Becoming familiar with the moneyline odds format may require some time. However, thankfully, converting to fractional odds is an option that may be more easily digestible.

This UFC event presents a moneyline listing, indicating Cory Sandhagen as the clear frontrunner to triumph over Frankie Edgar in their upcoming fight. However, comprehending the significance of the numerical values could prove challenging.

To begin, Frankie Edgar is listed at +320. To convert positive moneylines (underdogs) into decimal odds, you divide the number by 100. Therefore, Edgar is considered a 16/5 underdog in the fight.

To determine Cory Sandhagen’s favoritism, we need to divide 100 by the absolute value of the given number. In simpler terms, Sandhagen’s chances of winning the fight are 1/4, making him a 4/1 favorite. Typically, betting on the favorite incurs higher costs due to the sportsbook’s need to account for its commission and ensure proper balance of funds.

What is the win probability?

The moneyline can be used to determine an approximate win probability. However, it should be noted that this estimation is not definitive or considered as the “right” number, but rather reflects the perspective of expert oddsmakers on the particular competition.

In order to determine the perceived probability of an underdog winning, the following steps must be followed:

• Increase the listed odds by 100.
• Find the quotient when 100 is divided by the new number.
• Take the outcome and increase it by 100%.

Edgar’s win probability for his fight with Sandhagen is determined by adding 100 to 320, resulting in 420. Next, we divide 100 by 420, which gives us 0.238. Multiplying 0.238 by 100 yields Edgar’s win probability of 23.8%, according to BetMGM Sportsbook.

Next, we need to perform an additional calculation for the preferred choice. Here are the steps to follow:

• Increase the absolute value of the given odds by 100.
• The original listed odds (absolute value) should be divided by the new number.
• Increase the outcome by 100-fold.

To determine Sandhagen’s win probability, we add 100 and 400 together, resulting in a total of 500. Next, we divide 400 by 500 (400/500), which equals 0.8. By multiplying 0.8 by 100, we find that Sandhagen has an 80% chance of winning.

You may observe that the total win probabilities for both fighters exceed 100%. Although this may appear unusual, it is important to consider that sportsbooks incorporate their profit into the moneylines, ensuring that your potential winnings are slightly lower than the actual odds, especially when betting on the favorite. Therefore, the additional percentage (3.8% in this instance) does not precisely represent the vigorish, but rather serves as an indication that it is already factored into the calculations.

What’s the difference between moneyline and puck line/run line?

When browsing through sportsbooks in New York, you might come across terms like “puck line” or “run line” and wonder what they mean. Additionally, the use of the word “line” might be misleading, making you think these bets are similar to moneyline wagers.

To be honest, that thought isn’t entirely incorrect. These bets can be seen as a mix of point spreads and moneylines.

The puck line and run line are bets offered by sportsbooks for hockey and baseball games, respectively, reflecting their respective names. Given the relatively low-scoring nature of hockey and baseball compared to basketball and football, sportsbooks face a greater challenge in establishing a conventional spread.

Alternatively, the oddsmakers choose to establish a fixed spread of 1.5 goals or runs for both teams. While there are still clear favorites and underdogs, the predicted margin of victory remains unchanged. However, it is important to note that the estimated 1.5 goal spread may not be precise for each individual game. Consequently, in order to compensate for this inability to modify the spread, sportsbooks adjust the payout ratios using the moneyline format.

The usual payout ratio for a point spread is approximately -110, but puck lines and run lines can deviate significantly from this figure. As an example, here is a puck line listing provided by Caesars Sportsbook.

Despite the Predators giving a 1.5 goal advantage to the Blackhawks, they are considered the underdogs to cover the spread. Caesars has more confidence in the Blackhawks to meet the spread, as evidenced by their requirement of a $160 bet to win $100 on the puck line.

Are moneyline bets available during live betting?

Yes, moneyline bets are still available even after the game has started.

You should exercise caution when it comes to live bets, just like any other type of live betting. Unlike pregame wagers with the same name, live betting options have not been influenced by line adjustments and smart money, making them less predictable.

However, the absence of predictability can also be advantageous. For instance, a sportsbook may react excessively and provide extremely favorable odds for a team to stage a comeback. If you are tracking a team that often comes from behind or starts off slowly, you might have the opportunity to take advantage of this and obtain some value once the game has already begun.

Should you bet the moneyline instead of the spread?

The assessment varies. Although certain bets can be considered as true sucker bets and are more unfavorable compared to others, the moneyline and point spread tend to be more impartial. Typically, the choice ultimately comes down to personal preference rather than any other factor.

The moneyline and traditional fandom go hand in hand. Regardless of how your chosen team wins, whether by a narrow margin or a landslide victory, it doesn’t matter. With the moneyline, you can purely support your team to win, just like any regular fan would while watching a game.

Moneylines are available for nearly all sporting events as there is usually a clear winner. In sports like soccer where ties occur frequently, a three-way moneyline is used to accommodate this possibility.

However, a point spread bet allows for a certain level of flexibility. It acknowledges the possibility that a team can win the game but lose the bet, or vice versa. The final result of the game is only loosely connected to the determination of the wager.

If you have full confidence in the result of a game, the focus should shift towards predicting the manner in which it will conclude rather than solely on the end result. Additionally, monitoring injury reports and team news may enable you to identify spread value as these updates could potentially make the original spreads appear less reliable, even if they do not impact the game’s outcome for the moneyline.

Ultimately, neither wager is superior or inferior to the other. The decision ultimately depends on the type of sports betting experience you desire.

What are the biggest mistakes that moneyline bettors make?

Just like any form of gambling, winning every moneyline wager is not guaranteed. Every listing includes a house edge, and accurately predicting game outcomes with certainty is impossible. Even experienced sports bettors typically win less than 60% of their wagers.

Despite everything mentioned, moneyline bettors should be cautious of certain common mistakes. Since the odds are already in favor of the opposing side, it is important not to make it any easier for them to win. Here are a few behaviors to steer clear of:

• When it comes to online sports betting, you have a wide range of sportsbook options at your fingertips with just a click. Therefore, it is essential to explore different websites to find the best betting lines. Keep in mind that varying odds on different sites do not alter the ultimate outcome of the game. Conduct thorough research to identify the most probable outcome and then seek out the most favorable deal that aligns with your expectations.
• Mistaking “favorite” for a guaranteed win: The upcoming fight between Cory Sandhagen and Frankie Edgar appears heavily favored towards Sandhagen. With odds of 4:1 in his favor, it is highly likely that Sandhagen will emerge victorious. However, it is important to acknowledge that Edgar still has a chance of winning. There are several variables that could alter the outcome, such as a well-placed punch slipping past Sandhagen’s defenses, an unexpected injury, or a mistake on the ground allowing Edgar to secure a submission with his Brazilian jiu-jitsu expertise. These unforeseen events can occur, reminding us that favorites can also experience defeat. Therefore, it is crucial to balance our enthusiasm for favorites with the understanding that they too can lose at times.
• Deciding to place a bet solely based on loyalty towards “your” team is not a wise choice. We all have our preferred organizations that we passionately support, sometimes to an excessive extent. However, allowing personal emotions to cloud your judgment when it comes to moneyline bets is not advisable. If you find yourself unable to objectively assess the situation, it would be better to explore alternative options.

What happens to a moneyline wager than ends in a tie?

Typically, it results in a tie and you receive your wager back.

Except for a few rare occurrences, ties are uncommon in sports, as most sports strive to establish a clear victor. Take baseball, for example, where games can extend indefinitely with extra innings. It is not unusual for games to reach the 10th or 11th inning, and the longest game in MLB history lasted a staggering 26 innings.

The game, which took place in 1920, resulted in a 1-1 tie due to darkness. However, with the presence of sufficient nighttime lighting in every MLB stadium now, visibility issues will no longer cause game endings. It is worth noting that if moneyline betting had been available for that game, bettors would have received a refund, as there would be no negative consequences in such a situation.

If ties are frequent, this rule has one exception, as seen in soccer. In such cases, the sportsbook will adjust the moneyline to provide three possible outcomes. You can place a bet on either team winning outright or bet on a tie. For instance, DraftKings offers an example of this.

In the initial match, a win for Liverpool is highly probable, although not entirely guaranteed. Both teams possess nearly identical records and are positioned closely in the rankings, indicating the possibility of an unpredictable outcome or even a draw.

The second game is familiar territory, with Everton boasting a significantly stronger team compared to Newcastle. It seems highly improbable for the Magpies to secure even a draw, let alone a victory.

If the tie is a possible outcome, bettors who choose either side will not experience any pushes. This option is only available for two-way moneylines.

Final thoughts on the moneyline

Moneyline bets may appear daunting at first due to their three-digit format, especially for novice bettors. However, once you get past the initial confusion, you’ll realize that moneylines are actually quite straightforward and easily understandable wagers among the options available in a sportsbook.

Playing smart and taking calculated risks is crucial when it comes to moneylines. While hitting longshots can be exciting, it’s important to remember that they are called long shots for a reason – they rarely succeed.

Always keep an eye on your bankroll and, most importantly, prioritize enjoying yourself. It’s never wise to place bets when feeling upset, angry, or solely to recoup losses. Ill-advised moneyline wagers won’t alter the outcome in your favor.